Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 35.132428 38.005511 41.172827 44.957865 49.405240 54.526897 6.096580e+01
2025-10-12 30.725972 34.431376 38.794670 44.425601 51.683556 61.014146 7.447056e+01
2025-10-19 28.560493 32.738789 37.877754 44.874447 54.534462 68.101219 9.021599e+01
2025-10-26 27.405005 32.028052 37.933425 46.373615 58.817963 77.953348 1.138017e+02
2025-11-02 26.041154 30.859184 37.185672 46.564752 61.129000 85.298646 1.368616e+02
2025-11-09 24.301986 29.029709 35.338284 44.897454 60.223530 86.944196 1.494196e+02
2025-11-16 22.804602 27.409350 33.630905 43.221785 58.999382 87.661605 1.603727e+02
2025-11-23 22.278205 27.058739 33.657421 44.140170 62.200634 97.644603 2.040793e+02
2025-11-30 21.515995 26.324790 33.063216 44.001853 63.504538 104.158435 2.458306e+02
2025-12-07 20.714193 25.485166 32.248152 43.412702 63.868338 108.697065 2.880305e+02
2025-12-14 19.530924 24.049725 30.466548 41.087083 60.628811 103.797431 2.805788e+02
2025-12-21 19.031677 23.567957 30.086150 41.064695 61.860912 110.440298 3.479413e+02
2025-12-28 18.977700 23.829187 31.007197 43.645116 69.493617 140.344727 8.442170e+02
2026-01-04 18.202608 23.004344 30.207506 43.164971 70.716166 153.258133 1.781323e+03
2026-01-11 17.701077 22.545763 29.936328 43.589160 74.098451 177.507991 2.843533e+08
2026-01-18 17.436522 22.421073 30.183702 45.012490 80.389927 224.292962 NaN
2026-01-25 16.970337 21.955655 29.824346 45.193781 83.559379 263.618932 NaN
2026-02-01 16.242598 21.047590 28.658262 43.611202 81.395617 266.229857 NaN
2026-02-08 15.564997 20.190652 27.534187 42.018358 78.917169 264.612187 NaN
2026-02-15 15.342655 20.035683 27.597248 42.891638 84.017533 338.359728 NaN
2026-02-22 14.977101 19.635787 27.208434 42.760160 86.014515 396.185216 NaN
2026-03-01 14.571383 19.154605 26.648920 42.199957 86.479891 442.349129 NaN
2026-03-08 13.940012 18.292040 25.380005 39.985765 80.920577 385.213423 NaN